It's beginning to look like the end of the line for Bobby Valentine. He's probably alienated about half of his players by attacking veterans like Kevin Youkilis in the media, leaving Jon Lester out to dry on a bad day, and generally just being Bobby Valentine. The book on the mercurial media-loving manager has always been suspicion about his devotion to his players, and that's coming to the fore now.
And on the other hand, there are still players in that clubhouse that think that the Red Sox decline this year has nothing to do with their manager. Even this Jeff Passan article that blew the most recent lid off of the controversy admits that there's a faction of players that believe that some stars are shifting blame to the manager when it should be on them. And Dustin Pedroia just said publicly that nobody is gunning for the manager -- it's not a clear-cut mutiny.
The public is left wondering what's really going on. And in some ways, so is the Red Sox management. They can evaluate their personal relationships, and they can see what's happening on a daily basis, but can they truly separate out the effect their manager has had from the effect their players have had -- and the effect they had, when they put together the current roster? Who gets the blame for Kevin Youkilis' poor season? Who gets the blame for the pitching staff's poor production? How do you shuffle that blame around?
Evaluating managers in a studied, scientific way is one of the most difficult things to do in baseball. But it's not alone. So instead of trying to evaluate managers, let's name the tiers after the remaining frontiers in baseball. What do we know the least about? What are the most difficult aspects of the game to figure out in a reasoned way?
Tier 1: Elite (5) (AKA: The "The Value of a Manager" Tier.)
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
While we are on the subject, might as well expound. It's virtually impossible to evaluate a manager. Let's say you figure out how to award a manager credits or demerits for his in-game strategy -- then you've figured how to evaluate about a quarter of his job. Then maybe you can give him credit for the lineup. Separating out lineup protection has been difficult in the past, but maybe you can do it. Are you approaching half of his job yet? There's still all the day-to-day stuff, the psychological stuff, the media handling, the leadership when it comes to team and practice… and how are you going to figure THAT stuff out?
Nobody can figure out Aroldis Chapman either. And his team is scoring, his bullpen is strong, and he's likely going to be the best reliever in baseball when all is said and done. Consider Jonathan Papelbon, once a contender for that title. He is suffering from a little reduced velocity, his team is having trouble scoring runs, and he might not get the save opportunities the Cuban will enjoy. He's still great.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "How to Evaluate a Scout" Tier.)
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
Scouts sign players, so there is usually a name associated with a prospect. Teams probably check who signed the best players, too. But it's still an organizational thing. You send multiple scouts out to see a player, and you get input from everywhere. Scouts talk to each other, too. And then the organization makes a pick after gathering as much information as they can. How do you mete out the responsibility for the pick? All blame or fame goes to the one scout that signed him?
Rafael Betancourt gets all the blame for blowing a save in San Francisco -- although Hunter Pence should get some of the fame for hitting the home run. And it was only Betancourt's fifth blown save of the year, so it's not a big deal. In his last ten appearances, the Rockies' closer has given up just that one earned run to Pence, and one walk. He's still excellent.
It's very tempting to move Rafael Soriano down and Tom Wilhelmsen up. They might be the closest relievers separated by a tier. Wilhelmsen does have more strikeouts and fewer walks -- his improved control is what has made him a monster -- but his team doesn't score runs, and that's half of what makes a save opportunity. The other half -- overall bullpen strength -- is about equal, considering the fresh arms that the Mariners have put together in Carter Capps and Stephen Pryor. A bump in the road might send Soriano down -- after all, he's ceding almost a strikeout per inning to the average closer these days.
Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Defense" Tier.)
Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners
Tyler Clippard, Washington Nationals
Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels
Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
There have been many advancements when it comes to defense. There are numbers out there, and theories. But most defensive numbers take about three times longer to become reliable than most offensive numbers, there's still a lot of debate about how to correctly evaluate defense, and all of the metrics include a subjective evaluation that can gum up the works. Add to this the difficulty of evaluating a catcher's defense in particular, and you can see that evaluating defense is still difficult.
The one amazing thing about Addison Reed to date is this: he's managed about a strikeout per inning, along with an above-average walk rate, and he's only blown three saves this year -- and that production should be considered to be below expectations. He had double-digit strikeout rates at every stop in the minor leagues, and minuscule walk rates. If you look at his first strike, zone percentage, outside-the-zone swing percentage, and contact rates, though, they are all above average. Those are better predictors than current walk rate -- first-strike rate in particular -- so expect better control going forward, especially next year.
It's nice to see Ernesto Frieri get the save Tuesday night without a walk. He did get the win on August tenth with a Kimbrel -- three strikeouts and no baserunners -- but he's been a little on-again, off-again recently. The walk rate is a little disconcerting, but look at the strikeouts. He now has 16 in his last ten innings, and that's against four walks. That'll do.
Tier 4: Question marks (5) (AKA: The "The Link Between Specific Pitches and Injury" Tier.)
Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays
Steve Cishek, Miami Marlins
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox
I've done some work on this subject myself, and Jeff Zimmerman has improved on that research, and we're fairly sure that heavy use of either sliders or curveballs or both can lead to more injuries. Of course, it's hard to create these studies exactly right, and each arm (ligament) is different. Some pitchers have thrown thousands of pitches in little league and college. Some, like Stephen Strasburg, took up the craft in college. Tough to lump those together in the same buckets.
When reading the tea leaves, it's not good to see your closer pitch in a losing game, but at least Steve Cishek only came in to get one out in a game that the Marlins trailed by one run. He's still the nominal closer, and Heath Bell still gave up four runs in his last appearance. Add up the fact that Bell has gone three appearances without a strikeout (and has six in his last ten outings), and you don't get the sense that the highly paid one is knocking down the door. That means Cishek gets to rise above the fray.
Alfredo Aceves has one foot in the bottom tier now that Andrew Bailey is back, but Aceves has really righted the ship after a stormy debut as the closer. Still, he's about two strikeouts per inning shy of an average closer, his control is only average, he doesn't get more ground-balls than the average reliever -- there's a crack of daylight for the more excellent but more often injured Bailey to take the reins. Bailey's a decent pickup.
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
It's beginning to look like the end of the line for Bobby Valentine. He's probably alienated about half of his players by attacking veterans like Kevin Youkilis in the media, leaving Jon Lester out to dry on a bad day, and generally just being Bobby Valentine. The book on the mercurial media-loving manager has always been suspicion about his devotion to his players, and that's coming to the fore now.
And on the other hand, there are still players in that clubhouse that think that the Red Sox decline this year has nothing to do with their manager. Even this Jeff Passan article that blew the most recent lid off of the controversy admits that there's a faction of players that believe that some stars are shifting blame to the manager when it should be on them. And Dustin Pedroia just said publicly that nobody is gunning for the manager -- it's not a clear-cut mutiny.
The public is left wondering what's really going on. And in some ways, so is the Red Sox management. They can evaluate their personal relationships, and they can see what's happening on a daily basis, but can they truly separate out the effect their manager has had from the effect their players have had -- and the effect they had, when they put together the current roster? Who gets the blame for Kevin Youkilis' poor season? Who gets the blame for the pitching staff's poor production? How do you shuffle that blame around?
Evaluating managers in a studied, scientific way is one of the most difficult things to do in baseball. But it's not alone. So instead of trying to evaluate managers, let's name the tiers after the remaining frontiers in baseball. What do we know the least about? What are the most difficult aspects of the game to figure out in a reasoned way?
Tier 1: Elite (5) (AKA: The "The Value of a Manager" Tier.)
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
While we are on the subject, might as well expound. It's virtually impossible to evaluate a manager. Let's say you figure out how to award a manager credits or demerits for his in-game strategy -- then you've figured how to evaluate about a quarter of his job. Then maybe you can give him credit for the lineup. Separating out lineup protection has been difficult in the past, but maybe you can do it. Are you approaching half of his job yet? There's still all the day-to-day stuff, the psychological stuff, the media handling, the leadership when it comes to team and practice… and how are you going to figure THAT stuff out?
Nobody can figure out Aroldis Chapman either. And his team is scoring, his bullpen is strong, and he's likely going to be the best reliever in baseball when all is said and done. Consider Jonathan Papelbon, once a contender for that title. He is suffering from a little reduced velocity, his team is having trouble scoring runs, and he might not get the save opportunities the Cuban will enjoy. He's still great.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "How to Evaluate a Scout" Tier.)
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
Scouts sign players, so there is usually a name associated with a prospect. Teams probably check who signed the best players, too. But it's still an organizational thing. You send multiple scouts out to see a player, and you get input from everywhere. Scouts talk to each other, too. And then the organization makes a pick after gathering as much information as they can. How do you mete out the responsibility for the pick? All blame or fame goes to the one scout that signed him?
Rafael Betancourt gets all the blame for blowing a save in San Francisco -- although Hunter Pence should get some of the fame for hitting the home run. And it was only Betancourt's fifth blown save of the year, so it's not a big deal. In his last ten appearances, the Rockies' closer has given up just that one earned run to Pence, and one walk. He's still excellent.
It's very tempting to move Rafael Soriano down and Tom Wilhelmsen up. They might be the closest relievers separated by a tier. Wilhelmsen does have more strikeouts and fewer walks -- his improved control is what has made him a monster -- but his team doesn't score runs, and that's half of what makes a save opportunity. The other half -- overall bullpen strength -- is about equal, considering the fresh arms that the Mariners have put together in Carter Capps and Stephen Pryor. A bump in the road might send Soriano down -- after all, he's ceding almost a strikeout per inning to the average closer these days.
Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Defense" Tier.)
Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners
Tyler Clippard, Washington Nationals
Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels
Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
There have been many advancements when it comes to defense. There are numbers out there, and theories. But most defensive numbers take about three times longer to become reliable than most offensive numbers, there's still a lot of debate about how to correctly evaluate defense, and all of the metrics include a subjective evaluation that can gum up the works. Add to this the difficulty of evaluating a catcher's defense in particular, and you can see that evaluating defense is still difficult.
The one amazing thing about Addison Reed to date is this: he's managed about a strikeout per inning, along with an above-average walk rate, and he's only blown three saves this year -- and that production should be considered to be below expectations. He had double-digit strikeout rates at every stop in the minor leagues, and minuscule walk rates. If you look at his first strike, zone percentage, outside-the-zone swing percentage, and contact rates, though, they are all above average. Those are better predictors than current walk rate -- first-strike rate in particular -- so expect better control going forward, especially next year.
It's nice to see Ernesto Frieri get the save Tuesday night without a walk. He did get the win on August tenth with a Kimbrel -- three strikeouts and no baserunners -- but he's been a little on-again, off-again recently. The walk rate is a little disconcerting, but look at the strikeouts. He now has 16 in his last ten innings, and that's against four walks. That'll do.
Tier 4: Question marks (5) (AKA: The "The Link Between Specific Pitches and Injury" Tier.)
Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays
Steve Cishek, Miami Marlins
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox
I've done some work on this subject myself, and Jeff Zimmerman has improved on that research, and we're fairly sure that heavy use of either sliders or curveballs or both can lead to more injuries. Of course, it's hard to create these studies exactly right, and each arm (ligament) is different. Some pitchers have thrown thousands of pitches in little league and college. Some, like Stephen Strasburg, took up the craft in college. Tough to lump those together in the same buckets.
When reading the tea leaves, it's not good to see your closer pitch in a losing game, but at least Steve Cishek only came in to get one out in a game that the Marlins trailed by one run. He's still the nominal closer, and Heath Bell still gave up four runs in his last appearance. Add up the fact that Bell has gone three appearances without a strikeout (and has six in his last ten outings), and you don't get the sense that the highly paid one is knocking down the door. That means Cishek gets to rise above the fray.
Alfredo Aceves has one foot in the bottom tier now that Andrew Bailey is back, but Aceves has really righted the ship after a stormy debut as the closer. Still, he's about two strikeouts per inning shy of an average closer, his control is only average, he doesn't get more ground-balls than the average reliever -- there's a crack of daylight for the more excellent but more often injured Bailey to take the reins. Bailey's a decent pickup.
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (7) (AKA: The "Value of a Reliever" Tier.)
Wilton Lopez (first chair), Wesley Wright (second chair), Houston Astros
Sergio Romo (first chair), Jeremy Affeldt (second chair), Santiago Casilla (third chair), San Francisco Giants
Glen Perkins (first chair), Jared Burton (second chair), Minnesota Twins
Grant Balfour (first chair), Ryan Cook (second chair), Oakland Athletics
Jim Henderson (first chair), John Axford (second chair), Milwaukee Brewers
Frank Francisco (first chair), Jon Rauch (second chair), Bobby Parnell (third chair), New York Mets
Dale Thayer (first chair), Luke Gregerson (second chair), San Diego Padres
It's obvious that relievers pitch about a third of a regular starter's workload. And it's also obvious that those innings are often more valuable because they come at the end of the game, in higher pressure situations. With work quantifying that pressure (leverage index), we've found a way to give relievers more credit for their work. But if you look around baseball, relievers are still paid more than they are "worth" by many teams. Could be a difference in opinion, or it could mean more research is needed. Obviously, from the emails in my inbox, there are a lot of different ideas about how to evaluate a pitcher in a small amount of innings.
It's good that these are tiers, especially when it comes to the bottom of this tier. If you have strong feelings about Sergio Romo, or Glen Perkins, or Grant Balfour, then you can act on those feelings. It's not like Frank Francisco or Jim Henderson -- despite being in 'sole' ownership of their closer roles -- are sitting so pretty that they deserve that much more attention. We've learned over time that managers don't prefer the committee, and that after some time, cream rises to the top. Consider this tier your grab bag, and the chairs your guide to which closer is probably in line for the most saves on his team.
In San Francisco, the manager opted to have Madison Bumgarner go for a complete game rather than try to decipher who should close. That means something. It also means something that the Giants have chosen to protect Sergio Romo from overuse and hide his slider-heavy approach from lefties. He still doesn't have a save since Bruce Bochy declared this a timeshare. In the meantime, Santiago Casilla has only pitched for eight outs in August, and in blowouts or losses. Maybe he'll show something and get back in the race. He's more suited for work against both lefties and righties than anyone else in that pen.
It's just as tough to read the tea leaves in Minnesota, since both Jared Burton and Glen Perkins have two saves each in August, but maybe there's a change coming. Perkins is a lefty, and managers prefer righties, but the Twins are looking to next year. And Burton is not under contract next year. Look for Perkins -- who has the rates of a better pitcher -- to get more opportunities down the stretch.
In Oakland, Ryan Cook's walks may have cost him the job. He's only appeared in one game in the past week, and it was a four-out appearance that started in the seventh inning. The good news is that he didn't walk a guy. The bad news is that he pitched in the seventh and Grant Balfour got the save. There really isn't anything wrong with Balfour (other than his name), so even if Cook gets more strikeouts, the suddenly competitive Athletics might need the steadiest hand at the helm for now. Balfour only has one save, but he's in the first chair right now, and that matters most.
Jim Henderson got the last save in Milwaukee, but the 29-year-old journeyman minor leaguer also had the last blown game in Milwaukee. And after defying his record, which said that walks might be a problem, for his first six innings, Henderson has walked three in his last two. We don't have anything else to work with, but despite his mid-90s gas, Henderson's record leaves more questions than answers. Keep Axford -- the last minor league journeyman with control to succeed as the closer for the Brew crew -- close, because he could still take it back. The mustachioed one only has four walks in his last ten appearances, and that counts as progress this year.
That New York bullpen? It's just the worst in the league. And bullpen performance and scoring punch are the best predictors for future save opportunities, so that team won't create many saves either. But Bobby Parnell is now pitching in the seventh, and Jon Rauch has a save, so the order has shifted some. That means something to the saves-hungry. Frankie Frank is still in the first seat, but he has a behemoth looking over his shoulder.
Dale Thayer goes last because it's just a strained calf for Huston Street and he should be back soonish. Luke Gregerson has never gotten the full trust of his coaching staff, and as a high-slider guy with platoon splits and a balky elbow, he's almost directly analogous to Sergio Romo. Thayer got the last save and should get the next one.
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Injured
Sergio Santos (shoulder), Toronto Blue Jays
Matt Capps (shoulder), Minnesota Twins
Huston Street (calf), San Diego Padres
Whoah, two guys, one is done for the year, and the other is probably done for the year. Guess by now you're healthy or deposed. Oh, except for Huston Street, who pointed out why a pitcher who has been injured often can be considered an injury risk. The fact that he slides right into Frank Francisco's spot here makes a lot of sense.
The Deposed
Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Brian Fuentes, St. Louis Cardinals
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Henry Rodriguez, Washington Nationals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Rafael Dolis, Chicago Cubs
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Ryan Cook has one foot in this box. Grant Balfour has one foot out. Let's wait a week to see what's really going on in Oakland.
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The Steals Department
Coco Crisp is available in more mixed leagues than he should be. Over the past two weeks, he's just two stolen bases off the league lead (held by Rajai Davis at seven), and Crisp suffers from the same platoon splits as Davis. Of course, Ben Revere still profiles better as the younger, speedier option, but Crisp is not a bad fallback, and he has more power. With Oakland suddenly competitive, Crisp should show better runs and RBI totals than he has in the past. It's time to go co-co for Crisp's afro-puffs.
Last week's deep league tout, Ryan Kalish, is now in the minors. He'll be back in September, but it's just another reason that deep leagues are so tough. Like, you could ignore all the strikeouts and the poor batting average so far from Anthony Gose, but he could end up in the minors again pretty easily. That team wants to see what they have, though, so he'll probably make it through the season. Whether or not he'll actually cut down on those strikeouts and make more contact is another question. Right now he has the swinging strike rate to match his terrible strikeout rate, and his minor league work predicted this. But he's a burner! He had 76 steals against 17 caught stealings over two levels in the minors last year.